Building Political Lies With Dishonest Summaries

In: Politics

14 Dec 2010

A friend of mine posted the following on his facebook wall yesterday (partly swedish, but should be comprehensible for most):

Terrordåd i Europa 2006-2009 enligt Europol:
Totalt antal: 1770
Islamic: 6 (0.34%)
Right Wing Ethno-Nationalist and Separatist: 1596 (90.17%)
…Left Wing: 106 (5.99%)
…Other/Not Specified: 62 (3.50%)
tack <name withheld by me> för statistiken

What I took notice of is that Islamic terrorism seem to be the least of our worries, regarding Europe as a whole. Which is startling considering how often one hears, mostly right wing, politicians cry wolf about this relatively insignificant source of terror.

I couldn’t get myself to do put the message on my own profile without verifying the sources and numbers first, so I downloaded SAT-TE 2007 and SAT-TE 2010 from the EUROPOL publications website, and lo and behold it turns out that whoever put these numbers together in such a disingenuous way deserves a visit from the special finish Father Christmas, for being a very naughty boy indeed. Here is the correct summary of the numbers found in the aforementioned reports:

Sources of Terror in Europe 2006-2009 according to EUROPOL:

Islamist: 4 (0,22%)
Seperatis: 1590 (87,65%)
Left-Wing: 144 (7,94%)
Right-Wing: 6 (0,33%)
Single-issue: 8 (0,44%)
Other/Not Specified: 62 (3,42%)
Total: 1814 (100%)
Feel free to double check my sources and calculations in this google documents spreadsheet.

Turns out that not only is the perpetrator incapable of summing numbers correctly, ie. the total number is 1814 not 1770, but more importantly the numbers for “Separatists” and “Right-Wing” have been merged into one, despite the fact that they are represented separately in both of the aforementioned reports.

Why would anyone misrepresent numbers like this? I mean if the double-dealer behind the first summary wanted to save one line of text, he could have merged the non specific “Single-Issue” and “Other/Not Specified”. Which would make a lot of sense, considering that the “Single-Issue” category is absent in the report covering 2006.

Maybe we can hint at a possible motive by looking at the numbers differently. The following table is based on the same numbers as the one above but disregards “Seperatist” terror:

Islamist: 4 (1,79%)
Left-Wing: 144 (64,29%)
Right-Wing: 6 (2,68%)
Single-issue: 8 (3,57%)
Other/Not Specified: 62 (27,68%)

Now look who’s dominating the european terror statistics! I’ll leave any guesswork regarding the delinquents political sympathies and antipathies as an exercise for the reader.

On a lighter note, it turns out that “Team Islam” is doing even better than originally reported, which makes you wonder, did our wannabe deceiver get his numbers from the same source that I did? But it also makes it 50% more infuriating that this idiot has muddled the numbers in order to serve his own agenda.

There is exactly one person on facebook with the name originally attributed to the summary and he’s from Sweden which matches the language of the original text, so I’m going to send him a link to this post, giving him a chance to point out any errors I’ve made in the process of making him look so statistically opportunistic and incompetent.

Or rather I’ll notify him as soon as I’ve checked my firewalls and installed Varnish in front of the webserver, just in case he’s the vindicative type and well enough connected to utilize tools like the Low Orbit Ion Cannon in a significant way. In which case I’ll have to move my server to somewhere under the Akamai umbrella anyway (as VISA and Mastercard recently learned the hard way).

But considering that I withheld his name in this text, he probably won’t bother. Which is fine by me as I don’t care about the motives of this small fry in particular, but I do find it worthwhile to try and expose this wrongful representation of numbers with a very interesting message. A lie that I assume is spreading through facebook statuses like a wildfire.

Also note that real politicians misrepresent numbers all the time in order to further their own positions, they are however in general a little bit better at it.

In closing, I’d like to add that Randal Munroe posted this strip on the same day that I found out about the above, so I guess yesterday wasn’t a total loss from a “honesty in number representation matters” point of view ;)

16 Responses to Building Political Lies With Dishonest Summaries

Avatar

fairchild

December 14th, 2010 at 02:23

Here is the facebook message I’ve sent to the suspected culprit:

Hi if you are the “some swedish sounding name” behind the following:

Terrordåd i Europa 2006-2009 enligt Europol:
Totalt antal: 1770
Islamic: 6 (0.34%)
Right Wing Ethno-Nationalist and Separatist: 1596 (90.17%)
…Left Wing: 106 (5.99%)
…Other/Not Specified: 62 (3.50%)

Then I think I’ve found some errors in your numbers. Feel free to have a look at my analysis here: http://blog.fairchild.dk/2010/12/building-political-lies-with-dishonest-summaries/
And tell me if I’ve completely misunderstood you. And no, I’m not righted winged, but I don’t like people constructing lies like this to further their own stupid little agendas. Especially not when larger issues are at stake.

I mean the fact that Islamic terrorism is so underrepresented is obvious in the original numbers without manipulating them, so you (or whoever is behind this) only help muddle an important message with your actions.

Besides from that, I have no beef with you personally, and I don’t seek to have one either.

regards
Daniel

Avatar

airaM

December 14th, 2010 at 11:10

Thank you, for printing the truth and not the bullshit.

Avatar

fairchild

December 14th, 2010 at 11:45

@airaM: Well I guess the underlying numbers still represents “lies, damned lies and statistics” as the old saying goes. By which I mean that the EUROPOL reports of course also have a bias, which is partly stated in the definition of the different categories (section 3.1 on page 9 in the TE-SAT 2010 report).
My point however was never to start a discussion of the definitions used in these reports, only to point out that someone is lying to promote his own agenda at the possible detriment of making people aware of an eye-opening fact about terrorism in Europe.

Avatar

Daniel Sörenby

December 14th, 2010 at 15:31

This was me who put together the Statistics!

Now lets begin by saying that I have a view of a right-wing Economics why I put this together since many have a wrong conception of what is right-wing and other…

What you miss is that this very statistics are Ethno-Nationalist and Seperatis: 1590 (87,65%)

Islamist: 4 (0,22%)
Left-Wing: 144 (7,94%)
Right-Wing: 6 (0,33%)
Single-issue: 8 (0,44%)
Other/Not Specified: 62 (3,42%)
Total: 1814 (100%)

The most important part was that many times representation goes very wrong and the once that point to Muslim Terror ar often the once that are behind majority of terror Ethno-Nationalist!

The very rapports that I used was these!

http://www.europol.europa.eu/publications/EU_Terrorism_Situation_and_Trend_Report_TE-SAT/TESAT2007.pdf
http://www.europol.europa.eu/publications/EU_Terrorism_Situation_and_Trend_Report_TE-SAT/TESAT2008.pdf
http://www.europol.europa.eu/publications/EU_Terrorism_Situation_and_Trend_Report_TE-SAT/TESAT2009.pdf
http://www.europol.europa.eu/publications/EU_Terrorism_Situation_and_Trend_Report_TE-SAT/Tesat2010.pdf

Avatar

fairchild

December 14th, 2010 at 18:13

@Mr. Sörenby:
First I’d like to thank you for having the courage to come here, I have used strong words against your summary and more than hinted at the person behind that summary having deviant traits in his character. I would like to apologize to you for the parts of my writing that are easily read as attacks on your character, I was really angry when I wrote that.

When you write this:
“The most important part was that many times representation goes very wrong and the once that point to Muslim Terror ar often the once that are behind majority of terror Ethno-Nationalist!”

Are you then telling me that you find it okay to put your own interpretation on top of numbers from a credible source, and then attributing your interpretation to the original credible source without any mention of how you have altered the meaning of the original numbers?

That is what it seems to me, and I think this is very wrong. Especially since I’ve seen several people who based on your original summary have drawn the conclusion that EUROPOL finds that Right-Wing extremists are behing 90% of all terrorist acts in Europe. A conclusion that is horribly misleading, and cannot be made in a credible way from the EUROPOL numbers.

If you’ve only added an explanation to your note that explained that you’ve merged those two columns, because your personal belief is that Separatist are all Right-Wing extremists, then I would have no problem with your summary at all. But what you actually did has been very misleading for a lot of people, who didn’t take the time to go back to the sources.
You might see above that I consider the reports open for interpretation of their statistical bias, so I’m open for a discussion of the criteria the reports are based on. But in doing so I would insist that the outmost care is taken to clearly state every step that is taken in the reinterpretation of the original material. If you don’t do this, you’re misleading your readers, make yourself look ridiculous and produce results that are worthless for others to build on.

And even worse, you’re taking away attention from a very interesting truth that is very obvious in the numbers. The fact that Islamic terrorism in Europe currently is as insignificant as it is, according to EUROPOLS reports.

If you want to make the Right-Wing look bad, producing false claims is not the way to do it. I rather think that it is counterproductive to your aim.
Rather you should spend your time record what they say and shout it from the rooftops every you catch them in putting forth a false claim. And politicians do this often, and I think the ones on the far Right (Dansk Folkeparti in Denmark) maybe even warp the truth more often than other politicians (my personal opinion which I have no supporting data for).

So just to reiterate once again what my problem with your summary is: You’ve falsely represented the numbers from EUROPOL in a way that make it seem like what is in fact your personal opinion comes directly from EUROPOL. The harm is that a lot of people have read your original statement and now thinks that EUROPOL is behind the claim that 90.17% of all terrorism in Europe stems from the extreme Right.

By doing so you are harming both your own agenda, and drawing attention away from what could be used to form a more nuanced view on the extent to which Islam is a major culprit for terrorism in Europe.

Avatar

fairchild

December 14th, 2010 at 18:39

One more thing:

I interpret part of what you write above as you justifying your juxtapositioning of “Right-Wing” and “Separatists” terrorists, as a means to show how hypocritical it is that right-winged politicians always seem to be on-message about Islamist motivated terrorism, when according to how you see things it is people who are likely to support the Right-Wing (ie. Nationalists/Separatists) who are behind most of the terror.

The thing is that the hypocrisy is still very obvious when representing the numbers as honestly as possible, as I’ve tried to do. And that is how you should use these numbers, to counter any misleading claims made in public (regardless of party-allegiance of the source). Be prepared however that they probably will counterclaim that the reason there is so little Islamic terroism in Europe is that politicians like themselves and the intelligence services are extra focused on suppressing all the Muslim evildoers. And that is when you start using the other statistic from the reports that show number of arrests within these categories that we’ve been discussing.

Avatar

Casper

December 15th, 2010 at 00:05

Only three countries in the report have any separatist/ethno-nationalist incidents of significance: vastly most in Spain (Basque country), then France (Corsica) and Ireland.

ETA is a marxist organisation. Both Basque and Irish nationalism are strongly linked with the left wing (I don’t know so much about the Corsican variety). Left-wingers from all over Europe have traditionally supported Basque and Irish nationalism, for reasons hard to understand, since left-wingers typically oppose nationalism in their home countries.

So actually it would make much more sense to group the ethno-nationalist-separatists with left extremists.

(I am right-of-centre and have a certain sympathy for both Basques, Corsicans and unified Ireland, although not for the violence…)

Avatar

Kort om terrorism, statistik, och “europols statistik om Terrordåd” etc… « Dr. Marcus Nohlberg's Blog

December 15th, 2010 at 11:50

[...] av lösryckta siffror som sägs komma från Europol. Daniel Fairchild har gjort en klok sammanställning, där han visar att siffrorna inte ens stämmer med Europols. Någon har behandlat siffrorna i facebookmeddelandet på ett ganska oärligt sätt. [...]

Avatar

Daniel Sörenby

December 15th, 2010 at 13:54

Actually what is missed is that I said in my static´s that I did the merger of these groups now this wasn´t with everyone else´s copy of my statistics but to be sure I would say that the hole rapport is extremely bias of a police that won´t rapport its own state terrorism but are still willing to attack many groups. Then I would say that many acts of terror usually are classified in other categories of crime if we look to Sweden I don´t think our Shooter will be classified as a terrorist, but I still think he was. The error in numbers was because in part of the rapport the speak of the UK numbers and then they withdraw them instead + some stress in putting them together! As a phenomenon I would actually call Wahhabis and Ethno-Nationalist a similar movement but just local to that very territory.

If you look at the rapport you can see that the description of the groups they divide into are changing in every rapport so first to just join them is probably wrong even if I don´t think the Europol has made any change in when they put one in one box the main threat to most people are the Ethno-Nationalist! That many time has very little to do with Right-wing or Left-wing unless binding with a totalitarian leader when Ethno-Nationalist movements can go one of these ways!

And when you look at my statistics you can also see that I refer to my sources directly so that people could check it! If we look at my numbers the error was extremely small so there for I don´t really think there is a fuss but if you or someone else fell there was … then I stand corrected and have actually changed my numbers to the more correct one´s even thou I think the hole rapport is extremely misguiding but funny to use when people try to use fear to control populations!

Avatar

David Sandelin

December 15th, 2010 at 16:54

Just want to point out you should look at your numbers. according to the 2008 report on 2007 the islamists had 4 terrorist attacks, as far as I could make out of the report, so if the rest of your numbers are correct there were actually 6 islamist attacks during this period. That was the only number and only report I checked, so as far as I know all your numbers could be wrong. You should re-check the numbers on europol.

Avatar

fairchild

December 15th, 2010 at 17:21

@David Sandelin, you post is not without merit, but these minor deviations was never my reason to take the time to point this out. I’m just going to be lazy and quote my 2nd comment:

“My point however was never to start a discussion of the definitions used in these reports, only to point out that someone is lying to promote his own agenda at the possible detriment of making people aware of an eye-opening fact about terrorism in Europe.”

If you look at the spreadsheet I linked to in my original post you see that I’ve built my summary from numbers from the reports from 2010 and 2007. The former covers 2007-2009 and the latter has a comparable statistic for 2006. I only added the 2007 to try to cover the same range of years that Daniel Sörenby’s summary did.

The Islamic terrors acts that are “missing” in the TE-SAT 2010 summary, are mentioned in the 2009 report as haven taken place in 2007. I did make sure to point out that the UK had been left out of the TE-SAT 2010 in my spreadsheet (if you trust googles timestamp then you’ll see that I haven’t edited the document for the last 32hours as of this writing).

Avatar

fairchild

December 15th, 2010 at 17:54

@Daniel Sörenby: Listen my friend, the only reason why people took notice of your summary in the first place, is that you falsely attributed the numbers to EUROPOL. Had you not attributed the source, they would have been seen as the personal make-belief numbers made by you that they are.

And had you honestly stated that these were numbers that you had made up on your own, based on how your personal view of the world, nobody would have cared in the slightest. Opinions are like assholes, everybody has one, including me.

Had you on the other hand not added your interpretation and released the numbers without juxtaposing “Seperatists” and “Right-Wing” terrorists, the summary would still have been very interesting in the eyes of most people for clearly showing the discrepancy between the perceived and actual threat from Islamic terrorists.

I kind of agree with the statement that the EUROPOL numbers are silly and in my opinion only reflect how laughably sloppy and panicky a piece of legislation “Article 1 of the Council Framework Decision on combat- ing terrorism of 13 June 2002 (2002/475/JHA)” is, but that is only my personal opinion and my point was never to endorse or renounce the reports themselves. Just to point out that someone,you it appears, was making people believe that EUROPOL had published reports that stated something that they certainly never did.

And you really got to get a grip on the coherency of your arguments. If you have that much of a problem with the credibility of the EUROPOL reports, you shouldn’t have used them in the first place.

So now I’m back to speculating that you are well aware that people in general find EUROPOL credible, and very cynically used this to try and fabricate a convenient lie against people you consider your political enemies.

Avatar

Daniel Sörenby

December 16th, 2010 at 11:17

You are right in that I used this statistics and I actually have waited to use it because I have known of it for quite some time. But I waited to see when the Anti-Islamic voices of no knowledge was going to start spewing there hatred. And then I know I actually been trying to put Sverige Demokraterna to a Right-wing party but that is how I see my own error because looking at their politics I can see that they are much more left wing but first an primarily they are Ethno-Nationalists and that was what I wanted to show. That they shouldn´t be throwing stones in a house especially when they have had someone out on the streets shooting people just a month ago (Peter Mangs).

What they are trying to do is building a lie of hate and fear to build a police state in SWEDEN and we don´t want that! We want freedom for our Citizens not fear of what is different!

Avatar

Fredrik

December 19th, 2010 at 11:13

@Daniel

“They are trying to build a police state and we dont …”

First you try to use statistics you change what people belive and then you speak for everyone. Stop speaking for everyone in Sweden because you simply do not do that. Secondly, there is no police state and never will be, take off the foliehatt and use real arguments and you jsut might be able to change the outcome for next election..

Avatar

Mattias

January 6th, 2011 at 17:32

@Daniel
You might not remember this, but i actually talk to you about this very issue some time ago where i specifically pointed out the lacking statistic and the fact that ETA is a maxist-leneist movement. You totally ignored my advice and posted false statistics.

This proves millisues intent.

About Sweden democrats, its true that they not right-wing. In my opinion most left-wing people talk about all non left-wing party’s of being right-wing. Of cause, in a relative perspective, the are. But in a absolute perspective its not correct.

In a absolute monetary way Sweden democrats is dead center, with a absolute 50/50 state-capitalism/free-market

Sweden democrats is note separatist and only barely nationalistic. Really nationalist terror is far less common as left-wing, so you, with your leftist viewpoint is actually part of one of the larges terrorist ideology. The largest 3 separatist terror-network in Europe is Leftist. (i check up the French one). In a non Europa viewpoint its true to, the Colombian terror group is to leftist, as well as the Brazilian groups. In India, Philippines, Thailand leftist often cooperate with Islamic terrorist.

In wars to Islamic and leftist group is totally dominant in the ongoing wars.

When i see talk about hatted, most hatred seems to published by leftist and Muslim, not about them. You talk about not spreading hatred, but you create lies about right-wing groups.

Its you how actually create hatred.

Avatar

Daniel Sörenby

January 17th, 2011 at 17:18

@Mattias

I think it is funny that you try to put me in a left wing when economically I when I am much more right wing than any party in Sweden! Come to look at it more closely when it comes to freedom of mind I am again much more right! So I like I said I am against any the type of blame the communist “Swedish Democrats” totalitarianism try and put me in!

Again I am probably much more right than you are and probably ever will be!

For freedom of mind, for equality, for security, for sustainability and openness of expression!

Comment Form

About this blog

The name is inspired by the saying: "perfection is the bane of all good things".
Read more

Switch to our mobile site